HOUSE CONTROL223.1 expected D seats
Democratic 68.1%31.9% Republican
Model 64.5% · market 87.1%
Model live · Aug 24
2026 MIDTERM ELECTIONS71 DAYS OUTFORECAST № 01
THE CURRENT READ
Democrats are favored for the House.
The Senate is still a coin flip.
01
Balance of power
Model probabilities with bounded market context
SENATE CONTROL50.4 expected D-aligned seats
Democratic 48.0%52.0% Republican
Model 48.0% · market 48.4%
TEXAS SENATEPolls D +1.8 · model D +0.4
Talarico 52.2%47.8% Paxton
Model-only 53.1% · market 49.3%
How to read this
Probability is not vote share. A 68% forecast means the same race would produce a Democratic win about 68 times in 100 comparable simulations.
Read the methodology →RACE EXPLORER
Every seat,
one evidence trail.
| Race | Matchup | Polls | Model | Market | D win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEl-Sayed RRogers | D +0.217 polls | R +0.3Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 61%Weight 26% | 52% | |
| DJackson RCollins | D +2.83 polls | R +0.7Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 69%Weight 27% | 52% | |
| DTalarico RPaxton | D +1.816 polls | D +0.4Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 49%Weight 25% | 52% | |
| DMary Peltola RDan S. Sullivan | D +1.85 polls | R +1.0Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 62%Weight 21% | 47% | |
| DTurek RHinson | R +1.25 polls | R +2.2Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 41%Weight 26% | 36% | |
| DBrown RHusted | D +4.411 polls | D +3.0Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 53%Weight 21% | 67% | |
| DDemocratic nominee TBD RPete Ricketts | —0 polls | R +5.0external rating prior | —No matched market | 30% | |
| DAdam Hamilton RRoger Marshall | R +1.01 polls | R +5.3Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 20%Weight 26% | 24% | |
| DFlanagan RMichele Tafoya | D +5.02 polls | D +3.7Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 90%Weight 26% | 80% | |
| DShoffner RCotton | R +7.32 polls | R +4.7Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 6%Weight 23% | 16% | |
| DOssoff RCollins | D +8.06 polls | D +6.0Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 93%Weight 27% | 88% | |
| DRoy Cooper RMichael Whatley | D +8.720 polls | D +7.6Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 91%Weight 27% | 91% | |
| DScott Colom RCindy Hyde-Smith | —0 polls | R +18.0external rating prior | 8%Weight 25% | 4% | |
| DCharles Booker RAndy Barr | —0 polls | R +18.0external rating prior | 4%Weight 20% | 3% | |
| DMarquita Bradshaw RBill Hagerty | —0 polls | R +18.0external rating prior | 4%Weight 24% | 3% | |
| DJuliana Stratton RDon Tracy | —0 polls | D +18.0external rating prior | 96%Weight 23% | 97% | |
| DMark Warner RBert K Mizusawa | —0 polls | D +18.0external rating prior | 97%Weight 22% | 97% | |
| DJohn Hickenlooper RMark Baisley | —0 polls | D +18.0external rating prior | 97%Weight 25% | 97% | |
| DChris Coons RRepublican nominee TBD | —0 polls | D +18.0external rating prior | 97%Weight 0% | 97% | |
| DDavid Jordan Roth RJim Risch | —0 polls | R +18.0external rating prior | 3%Weight 0% | 3% | |
| DJamie Davis RJulia Letlow | —0 polls | R +18.0external rating prior | 6%Weight 0% | 3% | |
| DBen Ray Luján RLarry E Marker | —0 polls | D +18.0external rating prior | 96%Weight 0% | 97% | |
| DAnnie Andrews RRepublican nominee TBD | —0 polls | R +18.0external rating prior | 11%Weight 0% | 3% | |
| DDemocratic nominee TBD RMike Rounds | —0 polls | R +18.0external rating prior | 2%Weight 0% | 3% | |
| DDemocratic nominee TBD RHarriet Hageman | —0 polls | R +18.0external rating prior | 2%Weight 0% | 3% | |
| DNixon RMoody | R +9.04 polls | R +11.3Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 8%Weight 20% | 3% | |
| DRachel Lee Fetty Anderson RShelley Moore Capito | —0 polls | R +18.0external rating prior | 2%Weight 23% | 3% | |
| DCory Booker RJustin Michael Murphy | —0 polls | D +18.0external rating prior | 98%Weight 23% | 97% | |
| DJeff Merkley RDavid Brock Smith | —0 polls | D +18.0external rating prior | 98%Weight 23% | 97% | |
| DPappas RBrown | D +11.36 polls | D +11.3Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 89%Weight 0% | 98% | |
| DWess RMoore | R +15.01 polls | R +17.6Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 4%Weight 23% | 2% | |
| DBankhead RAlme | R +21.45 polls | R +22.5Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 1%Weight 21% | 1% | |
| DMarkey RDeaton | D +20.14 polls | D +23.0Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 98%Weight 0% | 99% | |
| DJim Priest RKevin Hern | R +21.01 polls | R +24.7Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 3%Weight 0% | 1% | |
| DReed RMcKay | D +17.22 polls | D +18.4Ridge + poll/fundamentals | 97%Weight 0% | 99% |
SELECTED RACE · SENATE
TX
52.2%Talarico win probability
Talarico vs. Paxton
- Poll nowcast
- D +1.8
- Model margin
- D +0.4
- Market consensus
- 49.3%
- Final probability
- 52.2%
16 polls from 12 organizations feed this matchup.
RECENT POLL LEDGERMargin · model weight
Emerson College2026-08-13 · 1,000 LV
R +1.016.6%Texas Southern University2026-08-04 · 1,200 LV
D +2.010.4%Wedgewood Polls2026-07-31 · 800 LV
D +2.011.0%YouGov Blue (D)2026-07-31 · 1,001 RV
D +3.09.3%Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Co. Research (R)2026-07-30 · 1,006 RV
D +3.011.1%Texas A&M University/ReconMR/Siena University2026-07-30 · 619 LV
D +4.09.4%Texas Public Opinion Research2026-07-28 · 1,048 LV
D +5.06.8%Siena College2026-06-30 · 656 LV
D +0.04.9%SIMULATION
Where the chamber
could land.
CONTROL →
223Median D seats
198–24890% simulation range
64.5%D control
METHODOLOGY
Built to be
wrong honestly.
A forecast should expose uncertainty, data gaps, and rejected ideas—not just its headline number.Aggregate evidence
Polls decay with time and are weighted by sample size, likely-voter status, sponsor partisanship, pollster frequency, and historically estimated house effects.
Blend, don’t crown
Senate forecasts use a fixed 50/50 Ridge and transparent candidate-aware fundamentals blend. House and governor models are selected on independent races and close contests.
Gate every adjustment
A probability calibrator was tested and automatically rejected because it failed the 0.001 out-of-period Brier improvement threshold. Markets remain bounded secondary evidence.
Simulate shared shocks
50,000 latent-normal draws allow national and office-specific errors to move races together instead of pretending every seat is independent.
VALIDATION
Earlier cycles choose.
Later cycles judge.
84.7%Nested winner accuracy
0.111Nested Brier score
576Independent selected forecasts
3,097Held-out race × horizon forecasts
Candidate-aware fundamentals
149 independent races · 60-day Brier 0.045
National environment blend
429 independent races · 60-day Brier 0.188
Ridge + poll/fundamentals
196 independent races · 60-day Brier 0.066
DATA PROVENANCE
697 current polls.
161 verified snapshots.
Every poll keeps its original link. Cross-source duplicates are clustered before aggregation, so the same survey cannot gain influence merely by appearing on several sites.
AUTHENTICITY AUDITpass with review flags
POLLING ORGANIZATIONS200
FEC CANDIDATE MATCHES822/847
REVIEW FLAGS1
pollingsource.com 60emersoncollegepolling.com 43d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net 33pro.morningconsult.com 32scholars.unh.edu 29drive.google.com 16static.foxnews.com 16www.politico.com 14quantusinsights.org 13www.270towin.com 13www.nytimes.com 11www.ipsos.com 11www.cygn.al 9napolitannews.org 8www.focaldata.com 8scholarworks.bgsu.edu 8